How is it that one of the biggest cities in the country is losing people every day?
Are people just getting sick of urban life? Or is it something more than that?
Dallas is the second most populous city in Texas and the 5th largest city in the United States, even though it lost almost 15,000 people between 2020 and 2021. And while that number has seen a resurgence, the population has still yet to reach the 2019 high.
So who, or what, is to blame?
Well, if you take a close look, you’ll see that it is not a single event. But rather, several events that have compounded and led to the population shrinkage that has ravaged Dallas over the past two years.
Let’s dive into why people are leaving this city, and if it will ever return to normal.
Dallas home prices are significantly higher than those in the surrounding counties such as Collin, Denton, and Tarrant. Because of this, many Dallas residents are opting to move a little farther away from the city to save some money.
While Dallas has been losing some people, these suburbs have been exploding. With places like Celina and Prosper growing by over
150% and
35% respectively.
Let’s face it, while Dallas proper is a playground for professionals, it isn’t so great for those that want to start families. The surrounding counties have notably higher ranking school districts and with more land for sale, people are looking for homes where they can let their kids play in the backyard.
Dallas is a city of young professionals, but even these young professionals will get older. The median age in Dallas county is around 33 and if you take a look at the median ages in surrounding counties, you’ll find that the population starts to get older. For example, in Collin County, The median age is 37. In Denton County, the median age is around 35.5.
This subtle shift in median ages suggests that, as individuals and families mature, their priorities may evolve, influencing their preferences for living environments. The gravitational pull towards neighboring counties with slightly older demographics might be indicative of a natural progression as the once-young professionals seek environments that cater to different stages of life, be it family-oriented suburbs or communities with amenities tailored to an older population. In essence, as the residents of Dallas age, so too does the narrative of where and how they choose to live.
The rise of remote work has further fueled the Dallas exodus. The COVID-19 pandemic prompted businesses and employees alike to embrace remote work as another option. This newfound flexibility has enabled individuals to consider living in areas that were once seen as too distant from their workplaces. As a result, the appeal of suburban life has grown stronger, with a reduced emphasis on proximity to the city center.
For example, prior to the pandemic, remote workers just occupied 4% of the US workforce. As of 2023, That number has increased to
12% for full-time employees and 28% working a hybrid model.
Dallas's economic dominance comes with a price, quite literally. The city's cost of living, including housing expenses, has been rising steadily. The high home prices in Dallas have propelled individuals and families to explore more affordable options outside the city. This financial aspect has acted as a catalyst for the migration to suburbs where the quality of life can be maintained without the hefty price tag.
While the cost of living is only 3% higher than the nation average, nearly 60% of residents rent in Dallas. And at a median rental price of
$1,600 for a one-bedroom apartment, it is becoming more sensible to move to a more affordable suburb.
40 years ago, the DFW housed just 5 Fortune 500 companies headquarters. Today, it houses 24.
So, businesses are flocking to the DFW but there is a problem for Dallas proper. They are moving to suburbs like Plano and Frisco.
With large corporations like Toyota, Liberty Mutual, and Pizza Hut moving to DFW cities, you will see their workers come along with it. And because corporate opportunities are no longer restricted to Dallas, many people are opting to move to one of the smaller suburbs instead.
It’s no secret that Dallas and Texas in general is a red state, although with the influx of people coming in from places like California and New York, that is starting to change.
But something that you see across history and something that still rings true today, is that urban areas tend to lean more liberal.
Around
65% of voters in Dallas classify themselves as liberal, and if you are looking for a more conservative lifestyle, that may prompt you to step outside of Dallas and look at areas that are less densely populated.
So, what does this all mean for Dallas?
Is the population going to keep shrinking until there is no one left?
Not exactly.
While the city of Dallas may be slightly shrinking, the DFW metroplex is growing rapidly. Suburbs are expanding in every direction and with nothing but countryside in the way, it will keep going.
By the mid 2030’s the
DFW is projected to surpass Chicago as the third largest metroplex in the United States.
So, I wouldn’t worry too much about the Dallas population decline. If anything, it seems that people of the city of Dallas are just spreading out.
If you are thinking about making the move to Dallas or one of the Dallas Texas suburbs, then reach out to us here at the Living in Dallas Texas Team. We help people every day make their move to the metroplex and we want to help you too. So, give us a call, shoot us a text, or hop on a zoom so we can help you make that smooth move to Dallas, Texas!
Let's schedule a meeting! During this initial consultation, we'll learn more about your situation and what you're seeking in a home. We'll provide advice and address any concerns you may have in order to determine the best approach to achieving your goals. By the end of our conversation, we'll have a solid plan of action and next steps for moving forward.
Let's schedule a meeting! During this initial consultation, we'll learn more about your situation and what you're seeking in a home. We'll provide advice and address any concerns you may have in order to determine the best approach to achieving your goals. By the end of our conversation, we'll have a solid plan of action and next steps for moving forward.
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